State-by-State: Too Damn Close

With eighteen days left, and the debates concluded, the race is close. On September 28th, I predicted Bush 280; Kerry 232, Toss up: 26. Here's an updated tally.

Nationwide: Recent polls show a narrow Bush lead of between three and two points, slightly less excluding Nader. This is within the margin of error; the national polls are thus essentially tied. Yet, gamblers still predict a Bush victory, both in the Iowa Electronic Market poll (Bush 55 %; Kerry 45 %) and Tradesports (Bush 55 % Kerry 44 %; other 1 %). I now predict Kerry wins the popular vote.


Iowa Electronic Market poll, October 14th.

Electoral Count: The President is selected via state-by-state results, not popular vote. At present, Slate has Kerry ahead (Bush 259; Kerry 268; toss up 11); Real Clear Politics gives the President the edge (Bush 264; Kerry 237; toss up 37).

My count: Bush 285; Kerry 242; toss up 11. Here's my assumptions, designed for comparison with my September 23rd state review.

1. Iowa (7 votes): At one point, Bush had a 7 point lead, but no more--some polls are tied, others give Kerry a slight lead. This trend doesn't look good. But Iowa's still in play. Advantage--toss up.



2. Oregon (7 votes): Kerry's led here since late September. One poll says Kerry's losing support, but don't believe it--the state's overflowing with left-coast, left-wing loonies wearing leg warmers. Advantage--Kerry.



3. Pennsylvania (21 votes):Kerry must win this state to become President. And the state was a toss up until last week, forcing the Kerry campaign to spend time and money to retain support. But Kerry's now ahead by 2-3 percent, though Gallup thinks otherwise. Bush is close enough to keep Pa. in play, but probably can't win. Advantage--Kerry.



4. Wisconsin (10 votes): This state fathered progressive liberalism under Robert LaFollette, and yet Gore won in 2000 by only 5,709 votes. Bush has been ahead here since mid-August. (The recent Chicago Trib poll giving Kerry a 4 point lead looks like an outlier). According to Ramesh Ponnuru in the (subscription only) October 25th National Review, Republicans are benefiting from national trends: Wisconsin is a "disproportionately white state[], and the long erosion of the Democratic party among white voters has therefore hurt badly." Paul Ryan, a Republican congressman from southeastern Wisconsin, explains Bush's appeal in long-time liberal land:

   The state likes mavericks: . . . Kerry is too equivocal. "George Bush is really winning the personality/likeability contest in Wisconsin," says Ryan. "That counts for something."

   No doubt Dems call personality and likeability "wedge issues"--because Kerry has neither. Advantage--Bush



5. Minnesota (10 votes): Home to lefty heroes Hubert Humphrey, Gene McCarthy and Walter Mondale (the latter, famously, won only his home state running against Reagan in 1984). Minnesota hasn't voted Republican for President since 1972--a longer span than any other state. According to NR's Ramesh Ponnuru, the state's trending Republican, thanks to stable cities and fast-growing exurban areas. Still, it's not yet enough to overcome rampant "Garrison Keillor"-ism in the liberal Twin Cities. Kerry's up by about five; the President shouldn't waste time or money here. Advantage--Kerry.



6. New Hampshire (4 votes): Narrowly for Bush four years ago, but Real Clear Politics points to "geography more than anything else"--since Kerry lives next door. Polls have been inconclusive; the state's probably tied. This one depends on the ratio between natives and transplanted refugees from Taxachusetts. Advantage--toss up.



7. Maine (4 votes): It's one of those split-vote jurisdictions. Gore grabbed all four votes last time, and Kerry's nearly a neighbor here too. But Bush should capture 1 vote this year, from the second Congressional district. Advantage--Kerry 3 votes to 1.



8. Florida (27 votes): Bush must win Florida to be re-elected. And he's now ahead by 4-5 points--the "aftermath of the hurricanes may have given President Bush a decisive edge there," according to Real Clear Politics. Besides, brother Jeb won reelection by 15 points. Book this one, Dan-O. Advantage--Bush.



9. Colorado (9 votes): It's not close anymore: Bush has a 5-8 point lead state-wide. Who cares if they adopt proportionate voting; let 'um use it this year. This race should be over. Unless the Democrats steal the election; they would never do that, right? Advantage--Bush.



10. Ohio (20 votes): Ohio's a weathervane: the state's supported the winner in every election since 1964. It shouldn't be tough for Republicans--Bush's been ahead from the start, and had a double-digit lead less than a month ago. But Democrats bet the farm on Ohio, and managed to shave the President's lead to a point or two, or possibly move ahead. Bush's popularity has suffered here due to job losses in manufacturing, and an influx of Latino voters, particularly in cities. So it depends on which candidate better "connects" on the stump. And that's simple, says Jonah Goldberg:

    I've always thought [Kerry] was unlikable. . . . He's a fop, he's a dandy. He's arrogant. He talks to you like you need it explained to you that you might find a slice of bacon in a bacon, lettuce, and tomato sandwich.
    
    I always thought that this would be the clincher. Contrary to what the people who think George W. Bush is highly concentrated evil might believe, George W. Bush really is the more likeable candidate.

    Likeable's important everywhere, but especially in the Midwest. Advantage--Bush.

Conclusion: I've long argued the election should be "an easy choice." And Bush remains ahead. Still, I'm frightened that something like half the voters prefer surrender to strength.

The race is close. Too close for me. If you believe the polls, which Jim Geraghty doesn't. Still, it's close enough that the outcome likely depends not on swing voters but on turn-out from party faithful. So the question is: in the states listed above, who has more buses--churches or unions?