Electoral Count: High, Middle and Low Estimates

Toying with that wonderful LA Times interactive map, plus the various state polls as reported at Real Clear Politics, here's best-, squeaker- and worst-case election predictions:

• Landslide: Kerry takes one vote in Maine, and Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, DC, Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota, Washington, California and Hawaii. Bush takes the rest (including all 9 electors in Colorado). Result: Bush 331, Kerry 207.



• Pessimistic: In addition to the above, Kerry captures 3 of Maine's votes, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, and Oregon, plus 4 of Colorado's electors (should that state adopt its split vote initiative). Result: Bush 270, Kerry 268



• Disaster: Kerry adds New Hampshire, West Virginia, and all 9 Colorado electors. Result: Kerry 282, Bush 256.

Thoughts:

1. Iowa (7 votes): Despite the fact that Gore won Iowa by only 0.3 percent, the state has been trending Democrat for some time--Republicans wrote off Iowa long ago. Yet recent polls give Bush a 6 point lead. And few in Iowa windsurf. Advantage-Bush.



2. Oregon (7 votes): Though tied at present, only two sorts of people live here: windsurfers and tree huggers. Advantage-Kerry.



3. Pennsylvania (21 votes): Windsurfers--few; hunters--millions. Hunting season started this month; pissing off voters with guns isn't smart. On Slate this week, rural Pennsylvania resident Bill Gifford summed it up:

   Theoretically, Bush can win without Pennsylvania--he did last time--but Kerry can't, and it's looking like he might not.

   Advantage-Bush



4. Wisconsin (10 votes): Bush shouldn't be competitive in a state surrounded by safe Kerry jurisdictions (Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, Canada). But, the last two polls said Bush was leading by 4 and 10 percent! The reason: same as Pennsylvania--hunters. Kerry's blaming Bush for the expiration of the assault weapons ban helps the President. Still, "location, location, location." Advantage--Kerry.



5. New Hampshire (4 votes): Bush narrowly won the Granite State in 2000. New Hampshire has a long tradition of distrust for big-city media (fueled by the Manchester Union Leader), so Ra^therGate's gotta sting. Last week, the President was up, with Rasmussen favoring Kerry. General rule: Rasmussen's wrong. Advantage-Bush.



6. Florida (27 votes): The 800 lb gorilla, again. Bush has a narrow lead now, but the polls keep oscillating and the hurricanes disrupted surveys (and swing voter decisions) for two weeks. And the trends are inconsistent: On the one hand, Gov. Jeb Bush easily was re-elected; on the other hand, the contest to replace retiring Senator Graham may be leaning Dem; on the third hand, without Lieberman on the ticket, can Kerry equal Gore's total? Advantage-Bush, but narrow.



7. Colorado (9 votes): This year's Florida. Formerly, a safe Republican state. No more--the state's trending Democrat from the weight of transplanted Californians. Worse, Colorado will vote on whether to dump "winner-take-all" electors--and would apply the new rule this year. If they do, the parties might split the votes 4-5. Bush is ahead now, but the potential voting change makes predictions, uh, difficult. If Colorado adopts proportionate voting and is the margin for either candidate, the 2004 election will replay 2000--and go to the Supreme Court. Advantage-Justice Sandra Day O'Connor.