Kerry Concedes Four States

If you don't believe my electoral math, would you trust John Kerry's? The Associated Press reports that Kerry's pulled broadcast ads in Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and "the perennial battleground of Missouri." Battlegrounds no more. Ca-ching x 4.

AP says Kerry's concentrating on Florida and Ohio. This should be a big "uh-oh"--for Kerry. The latest surveys give Bush an 11 point lead in Ohio with Florida still in play (Bush by 6 in one poll, Kerry by 1 in another). However, the Florida poll favoring Kerry seems flawed in that it oversampled women, 45% men/55% women.

Although I agree with Instapundit that it's irrational exuberance, the Iowa Electronic Market and TradeSports futures pools each show Bush over Kerry 68-32. Anything else would be a sucker bet.

IEM Chart, September 21st