Iraqi Opinion

Commenting on yesterday's Neo-Con in a Nutshell, Cogito Sometimes asks:

I have been wondering why we haven’t heard more from the Iraqi government . . . or the Iraqi citizens. Perhaps it is because they can’t speak out for fear of reprisals, which may be part of the problem there. It might help significantly if there were some way to obtain an independent, unbiased, and statistically valid poll or vote (that might offer protective anonymity) to let us know exactly what the Iraqi citizens think of the U.S. involvement and how they would like it to proceed in assisting their country. If there are some, please post them.

Over the years, I've posted opinion polls showing Iraqis approved of the invasion and continued presence of coalition troops; I've complained that the left isn't listening. They overlook English-language Iraqi news. And anti-war progressives ignore Iraqi bloggers, supporters and opponents, none of which could be pigeon-holed as Bush cheerleaders.

Yet, four years after Saddam was ousted, there's no denying Iraqi support is softening. The (non-profit, non-partisan) International Republican Institute's June 2006 Trendline records the decline of optimism (click any chart to enlarge):


A pessimistic perspective also pervades World Public Opinion's September 2006 poll:




Still, the nadir might have passed last year. More recently, U.K. pollster ORB's March 2007 survey suggested a split personality, with some promise. A bit more than half of respondents thought a pull-out would improve security:


At the same time, only 26 percent of Iraqis (mostly Sunnis) mourned Saddam:


Confusing, but Strategy Page sorts out the bottom line:

While opinion polls in Iraq continue to show a majority of Iraqis wanting U.S. troops out, several key groups don't. The Sunni Arabs want American troops to remain to prevent them from being driven out of the country. The Kurds want the Americans to stay to protect them from the Turks and the Iraqi Arabs. The Iraqi security forces want the Americans to stay because the U.S. forces are much more effective than the Iraqis. Whenever Iraqi police or troops get into a tough fight, they can call on the Americans to make it all better. Plus, the Americans provide neat new equipment and training. Iraqi politicians want the Americans to remain because that keeps the Turks, Iranians and Gulf Arabs from getting more involved in Iraqi affairs. Iran is already a problem, and the Turks keep making threats. The Gulf Arabs have backed off (from supporting the Iraqi Sunni Arabs) for the moment, but that could change real quick if U.S. troops were withdrawn.

Eventually, the American troops will leave, and Iraqis will have to confront the unpleasant prospect of ruling themselves. Yes, some Iraqis yearn for the good old days, when Saddam was in charge. No one seems to be in charge now, but the majority of Iraqis don't want another Saddam. Alas, electing leaders who are competent, and not corrupt, seems so difficult. This is not a uniquely Iraqi problem. A recent meeting of the Arab League saw the king of Saudi Arabia telling the assembled leaders of the Arab world that they were the problem. Bold words, but no one has a solution. Iraq is one of the few democracies in the Arab world, and Iraqis now know that democracy, by itself, is not the solution to anything. Enough good people have to step up and do the right thing. Iraqis are still not sure if they can muster the needed numbers to make it all work.

If the surge works, support -- in Iraq and in Blue states -- will follow; success has a thousand parents. If we falter--Bush (and Bush supporters), rightly or wrongly, will be the single father of failure.