Campaign '08--Speculation With A Twist

My conjecture and syllogism about the Presidential race in 2008, jumping off from John Hawkins' instant analysis of Republicans, the Washington Post's brief review of Democrats, both of which appeared in early November, and Citizen Frank's informative Primary 2008 site:

Republicans:

1. Vice President Dick Cheney's been excellent, but has no further ambitions.



2. Jeb Bush, Governor of Florida, already ruled out seeking the nomination. The most common explanations are (alone or in combination): burnout, lack of further ambition and fear of provoking attacks on a "Bush monarchy/dynasty." Just imagine the taunts from Michael Moore, MoveOn and the rest of the tinfoil hat brigade.



3. Rudy Giuliani's got the Presidential "jones;" he's probably "electable;" he might even make a good President. But a pro-choice politician such as Rudy cannot win the primaries, traditionally dominated by the more conservative Republican base.



4. Senator John McCain would win the general election in a landslide. But, he couldn't win either party's primary because he's disloyal and anti-religious (Republicans), and militaristic and anti-abortion (Democrats). The WaPo's Dana Milbank thinks McCain's running. Perhaps. But not as a Republican.



5. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist isn't ready for prime time (and may never be). Dr. Frist (he's a surgeon) would have to launch his campaign by giving himself a charisma transplant. One problem: finding a donor.



6. The Govs: Bill Owens (Colorado), Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota), Ernie Fletcher (Kentucky), George Pataki (New York), Mitt Romney (Massachusetts): Owens is smooth and an excellent campaigner--but his ambition may have cooled. Pataki and Romney are too liberal, and Pataki's too "statist," nearly driving his state into bankruptcy. If front-runners falter, Romney's boosted by his name (the scion of a Republican family, his father was governor of Michigan and battled Nixon for nomination as President in 1968), and by his potential to win Blue state voters. The rest have no name recognition--if they run at all, the message will be: Oh, nominee, pick me for VP!



7. The Californians: Arnold Schwarzenegger would require amending the Constitution, which Dems won't support so long as the "Governator" could benefit. Condi Rice has the flash, the buzz, but does she have the thirst? Remember, she's never before sought public office, and no one knows where she stands outside of Foreign policy. The Presidency isn't an entry-level job. Unless she runs for Senate in '06 (prior to joining the Administration, she lived in California), Condi can't.



8. The Dark Horses: Senators Chuck Hagel, George Allen, Rick Santorum, Sam Brownback. Senators make lousy campaigners and mediocre Presidents. Except for Santorum, who would be hard to beat were he to win his home state of Pennsylvania, 'nuff said.



9. Any of the foregoing would settle for the VP slot, except Schwarzenegger (would violate the constitutional) and McCain (would violate his ego).

Democrats:

1. John Kerry hasn't ruled out running again. Unfortunately for Republicans, the Democratic party has--Kerry's hometown paper, the Boston Globe, headlined Kerry's post-election speculation Kerry run in '08 called conceivable. Ouch--that's gotta hurt.



2. John Edwards is eager. But he ran a weak campaign, prompting the inside-Washington quip that Edwards had gone missing, and his picture was set to appear on milk cartons. The Senator didn't swing a single Southern state for Kerry, and Democrats need a candidate from states without oceanfront property. In any case, he's now unemployed. As the WaPo puts it, "it is unclear how well Edwards, a former trial lawyer, might maintain his visibility in the meantime." Again, ouch--that's gotta hurt.



3. Howard Dean is in a bind. The few adult Democrats remaining know he's dangerous, not to mention unelectable. So, Dean can win only if he himself controls the DNC. But the only way he could be elected DNC chair this February is by promising not to run in '08. On Star Trek, the strain of such a recursive "do" loop destroys any malfunctioning computer (the future somehow having forgotten how to make fuses). And we already know Dean has a short fuse and is prone to explode.



4. Only WaPo's brain-deal liberal columnist Richard Cohen still favors Al Gore.



5. Indiana Senator Evan Bayh, himself son of a Senator, is the choice of the centrist DLC. Advantage: New England and Pacific Coast Democrats think Indiana's the South. Disadvantage: He's far too conservative for New England and Pacific Coast Democrats. Which means he could win the general election, but not the Democratic primary.



6. Bill Richardson, the governor of New Mexico, did everything but beg Kerry to select him as Veep; he's probably relieved Kerry didn't. Richardson still hungers, and would benefit from "first Hispanic" media spin. But, he's a policy wonk from a small state who also won't fly in the south.



7. The Senators: Russ Feingold is salting the press with hints he's not a liberal. No one believes it. Charles Schumer's a good speaker and fundraiser. The problem: he's only the second most popular Democratic Senator from New York.



8. A Virginian named Warner. Not John Warner, the Republican Senator, but Governor Mark Warner, who is term limited. A young (50) southerner, successful businessman, excellent fundraiser, a hard worker (he currently chairs the National Governors Association), Warner's the consensus dark horse who could be the Dem's white horse.



9. The younger and darker hued: Harold Ford Jr. is bright, articulate and a southerner (Tenn.) whose brief but bold run for Minority Leader made him the media flavor-of-the-month. Trouble is, since then, he's only appeared on milk cartons with Edwards, prompting the media to make Freshman Illinois Senator Barack Obama the new flavor of the month. Alas, as John Edwards proved, four years in the Senate makes him too small--Obama's strictly catch-and-release.



10. If Hillary Clinton wants it, she's the Democratic nominee. I'm not sure she does; I don't think she'd win. But, given her popularity, her name recognition and fundraising prowess, it's Senator Clinton's for the asking, even if Howard Dean (thought to dislike both Clintons) becomes DNC Chair.



11. Of the contenders, only Hillary might refuse the second slot.

Twist:

Republicans are famously loyal, raising the possibility that George Bush himself might let his preference be known. Yet, this seems unlikely, unless the President was merely ratifying the obvious consensus, which does not yet exist. Hillary can delay her decision until, perhaps, early fall 2007. If she passes, the primary campaigns in both parties become a free-for-all.

Interestingly, Hillary's decision to run short-circuits the nomination battles in both parties--with Jeb Bush as the Republican nominee. Why? Because Hillary is Jeb's foolproof missile defense. After all, neither the NY Senator nor her media cheerleaders can foment conspiratorial claims about a vast right-wing dynasty were Campaign 2008 to become a repeat of 1992--Bush vs. Clinton.

Conclusion:

If you want Jeb, root for Hillary.