Front Row Seat

I previously predicted the election would turn on the "ground game":

it's close enough that the outcome likely depends not on swing voters but on turn-out from party faithful. So the question is: in the [battleground] states. . ., who has more buses--churches or unions?

Today, the fundamentals favor re-election: The economy is good, and the war on terror is successful enough to vindicate Bush's decision except among the "war is never the answer" crowd.

But the polls are ambiguous. Eight of the ten most recent national polls show Bush ahead, several with margins substantially greater than the margin of error. And the Iowa Electronic Market pool seemingly stabilized at Bush 60/Kerry 40. Yet Bush and Kerry continue to battle for the battleground states: Florida (slightly Bush); Ohio (no clear answer); Iowa (probably Bush); Minnesota (no clear answer); Wisconsin (leaning Bush); Pennsylvania (probably Kerry); New Hampshire (leaning Kerry); Nevada (probably Bush); New Mexico (slightly Bush).

I still predict Bush wins with 292 votes to Kerry's 246 (that assumes Bush wins Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and one district in Maine). So get out the vote ("GOTV") matters. And this makes the election subject to manipulation by fraud. Though there's been incidents on both sides, thus far, the Dems are responsible for most of the atrocities. Remember the Colorado Democrat election manual, leaked to Drudge, recommending claiming Republicans voter intimidation--even without evidence? Moreover, the Democrats are fully exploiting "provisional votes" in case the initial tally isn't clear.

Even when not directly tied to the Democrats, liberal advocacy groups such as ACORN appear to have paid for fraudulent registrations:

In recent days, ACORN has been at the epicenter of reports on thousands of potentially fraudulent voter registrations across the nation -- including many by ex-felons -- submitted by ACORN employees in the presidential swing states of Ohio, Colorado, Missouri Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Minnesota.

Most notoriously, in Toledo Ohio last week, a 22 year-old man who registered "Mary Poppins, Dick Tracy, Michael Jordan and George Foreman" said he was "paid with cocaine in exchange for his efforts."

Hugh Hewitt devoted an entire book to the thesis "If It's Not Close, They Can't Cheat." This one's still too close.

So I've volunteered. An RNC staffer called Friday night requesting help in Florida: reviewing registrations and monitoring polling places. I agreed and offered to live-blog the experience. And they've just tentatively approved.

This gives me a seat in the front row for the row to come--which I'll try to convey. Don't yet know exactly where I'll be (Ohio still is a possibility). I'll report when possible. That's at least every visit to Starbucks. Given the late nights ahead, expect updates relatively often.

[Series continues here]