Monday's USA Today says the Bush campaign ads, now running in 17 "battleground" states, flipped a 28 point Kerry lead to a six point Republican advantage. Moreover, Bush is two points ahead--in markets where the President's ads haven't run! Count on increasing support for Bush between now and November. Similarly, the Iowa Electronic Markets--normally more reliable than polls--show Bush overtaking Kerry and now holding a 5 percent lead.
Professor Reynolds published a reader's observation that, "despite the short-term damage inflicted by the 9/11 Commission hearings, they have ensured that this election will be about the war and terrorism, which benefits Bush." Exactly. As I have said before, voters who understand America's at war are voters for Bush.
Voters worried about the economy also should favor re-election. Under President Bush, America's recovered from the recession that started in 2000. Democrat populist hysteria--especially by the particularly partisan Paul Krugman in the NY Times--to the contrary, the economy is strong and getting stronger:
Here's the truth about what has happened to the American economy over the last year:Still skeptical? Unwilling or unable to fact check the Times? No problem. Just watch this short clip, cited by NRO's Jonah Goldberg.
Since the stock market bottom one year ago last Friday, the S&P 500 has grown $2.96 trillion in market value. Corporate earnings are now at an all-time record high. Gross domestic product has grown somewhere between 5 and 6 percent. Household wealth is at an all-time record high. Interest rates are the lowest in modern history. Inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index is non-existent. Jobs have grown between 122,000 (according to the Department of Labor's "establishment survey") and 983,000 (according to the "household survey"), and the unemployment rate has fallen from 5.9 to 5.6 percent.
These impressive economic statistics are largely the result of growth policies enacted by the Bush administration.
The liberal response? Ignore all this good news and invent a jobs crisis. Convince Americans that they shouldn't be fooled by the fact they have jobs. Say that the jobs they have are just temporary illusions. Let Americans know that at any moment their jobs will be "outsourced" to India.
So what's the Haughty Harido's answer? Up to now, he changes the subject, then invents numbers. After almost two decades as a Senator, Kerry's authored exactly three laws, two of which addressed the maritime issues so vital to mid-Westerners. On every other issue, he's either lied or flip-flopped. Sometimes both. Bush spokesman Terry Holt says it best:
John Kerry's campaign seems to be summed up this way: 'I went to Vietnam, yadda, yadda, yadda, I want to be president.' He would have the American people ignore his 19-year [Senate] record.That's just not leadership.
After some initial concern, I'm convinced Kerry doesn't stand a chance. I'll try not to be cocky--and I'll keep working 'till we close the deal.
Update:
Kerry's trailing Bush by 7 points in Pennsylvania. As discussed earlier, even under the most pessimistic assumptions, if President Bush takes Pennsylvania, he'll be re-elected.
