Doing the Math

I've been toying with that clever interactive electoral vote map all weekend. My conclusion: the election is closer than I thought.

Here's how I see it (270 votes needed to win):

Solid Republican (226): Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming, Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida(!), Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Alaska.

Solid Democrat (232): New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, District of Columbia, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii.

Battleground States: Maine (4), Pennsylvania (21), Tennessee (11), Indiana (11), Missouri (11), Iowa (7), Nevada (5) and Arizona (10).

Among states in the third group, I consider Maine and Pennsylvania "leaning Democrat," which would give the Democrats 257 votes, or 13 short. I call Tennessee, Indiana, Missouri and Nevada "leaning Republican," summing to 264, or 6 short. Iowa and Arizona are too close to call. And, remember, I'm counting Florida as solid Republican (based on Jeb Bush's 2002 landslide and the Democrats' probable failure to nominate anyone more than one quarter Jewish).

If I'm correct, President Bush must take EITHER Iowa or Arizona to win. The Democrats must capture BOTH Iowa and Arizona to win. Or, if Bush wins Pennsylvania, he could lose Indiana, Iowa and Arizona and still be re-elected. Unless Democrats also win in Nevada--in which case the vote is TIED!

Of course, I'm not writing off Maine or Pennsylvania. Bush has a good chance in both states (and won Maine four years ago). But I'm also concerned about Missouri, Indiana and Nevada; the latter two states have been trending Democrat for some time.

Yikes!