Quiz #8 (With Chart Answers)

Assuming climate change is real, how would global warming affect mortality?

1. Would warmer weather kill more people?



2. Is there evidence that weather-related deaths have increased?



3. Is there evidence that climate change already increased mortality due to more extreme weather?

Answers:

1. No. As I have already noted, cold weather causes more "excess" deaths than warm. A 2007 paper from Indur Goklany has the numbers:
   
   
   source: Indur Goklany at 8
   
   So, it's reasonable to assume that warming would save lives.



2. No. As Goklany details, both deaths and the death rates are down:
   
   
   source: Indur Goklany at 4
   
   
   Recent U.S. data is similar:
   
   
   source: Indur Goklany at 8
   
   


3. No. With temperatures about the same or less than a decade ago, excess mortality due to cold in England and Wales have been steady for the past seven years as Anthony Watts notes:
   
   
   source: U.K. National Statistics Office
   
   
   And, even given the spike produced by Katrina in 2005, the trend is down:
   
   
   source: Indur Goklany at 10
   
   

(Previous entries in series here, here, here, here, here and here.)

(via CATO blog, Watts Up With That? twice)