The trend is steady, i.e., fatal for Republicans:
Though there's probably less there than meets the eye, the Alaska legislature's preliminary finding of Palin abuse of power in "Troopergate" can't help. But the underlying reason for the trend is so obvious that even high school senior Arjun Modi could grasp and graph it:
source: State of the Union (graph covers Sept. 25-Oct. 9)
According to Modi, "the correlation between the two data sets is a robust 0.77."
To be fair, correlation isn’t causation. It’s possible (even probable, at least to some extent) the stock market declines reflect fears an Obama presidency--working with a Democrat-dominated Hill--will raise taxes and impose costly energy and environmental regulations. (One analyst I spoke with called last-week's sell-off "Prophet profit-taking," though with the entire market at 52 week lows, there's little profit left.) Still, I’m skeptical Obama-induced sell-offs were the prime engine in the recent losses. And I can't figure out why McCain refrains from tying Obama to the problem.
But whether cause or effect, the Dow and McCain's polls are dropping together. In contrast to last week, Obama's now ahead in Nevada and Florida. Colorado, New Jersey and Iowa are solid blue, and New Hampshire looks increasingly likely to join Democrat New England. Even this typo isn't enough to swing New York to McCain. Virginia appears lost in view of the fact that the Democrat running for Senate, who could win by 30 points over his widely-hated Republican challenger, will increase Democrat voter turnout in the state.
Obama's got nearly a 70 vote cushion. I still think Nevada and Florida might move Republican near the end of the month--but that's only 32 votes. So, with the stock markets still falling, I don't see the current trend changing. And it appears likely that Republican losses will turn the next Senate veto-proof for Obama.
On the other hand, this poll seems crazy.