Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Blame It on 'Cain

The House nixed the bailout; the market panicked and tanked. I don't know whether the current bill was good enough, or if some alternative will pass soon (the House adjourned until Thursday).

I do know that wallets--mine and many others'--took a big hit. And I'm sure McCain did as well. Respected conservatives say so, such as National Review's Ramesh Ponnuru:
[T]his vote is very bad for McCain. He was trying to get House Republicans on board, after all, and he failed. Blaming the Democrats for the failure will not and should not work, given the ratios on both sides.
The electronic markets say so--McCain dropped 4.7 percent to 37 cents on Intrade. The trend already favored Obama (graph here). And the polls agree--the electoral map on RealClearPolitics now rates Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina as toss-ups. McCain must win all seven states--to lose by three.

Again, I don't know how I would have voted. A majority of Americans actually may hate the bill. Many might reject House Speaker Pelosi's partisan finger-pointing, or understand that 40 percent of House Dems--including Obama's campaign co-chair, Jesse Jackson, Jr--said "nay." But I'm convinced they'll blame McCain regardless.

(via Best of the Web, Instapundit, Confederate Yankee)


OBloodyhell said...

> The market panicked and tanked

That's assuming it wasn't going to tank already, an assumption I consider dubious. It went down a lot, and it hurt. It's no surprise.

I think the fact that the market closed on its own, rather than being shut down by their special rules, says it's not (yet, at least) panic selling.

This, too, is also of relevance:
New Banking Data: Where's The Credit Crisis? Total Bank Loans and Leases Exceed $7T For First Time

bobn said...

Some Republicans, while saying they'd vote for it, called it a "crap sandwich". But that's so unfair - a crap sandwich has bread in it, after all. This bill was pure crap.

I'm for no bailouts until everything Paulson put in there is out and until Paulson himself is out. Paulson is vile.

OBH: Interesting question from Carpe Diem. But the TED spread and daily LIBOR are both looking pretty terrible, no?

OBloodyHell said...

I certainly think that there's going to be some interesting adjustments, but I'm not so sure that the world is about to collapse around us. I think that Social Security may well cause that, but that's another matter.

I think that, as a nation, we need to make it clear that they need to FIX social security NOW rather than wait, like this time, until it's a friggin' crisis of global proportions.

Given that no one under the age of 50 really expects SS to be worth much to them, I think that the best way to deal with it is probably to implement a system that raises the starting age by a year every two years starting very soon -- do that until it's 90, then break it off completely (just grandfather in anyone left in it, but no new recipients, so it will phase out as people die)

That should give the POS Ponzi Scheme over to the wastebin of history where it clearly belongs, and probably at the least level of pain for all involved.

I don't see a problem with replacing it by requiring people to keep a 401k automatically, mind you, with automatic deductions, to supplant it. That helps balance out peoples' reluctance to plan ahead for their old age.

OBloodyHell said...

bob, speaking of crap sandwiches, did you notice this Day-by-Day?

Also, look at my comments on the 10/1 "QotD", which follow from/relate to the above.

Assistant Village Idiot said...

Politically, McCain should have made a counterproposal similar to Gingrich's to show leadership.

For the good of America, McCain should have made a counterproposal similar to Gingrich's to show understanding.

To get along with the powerful of both parties in order to work with them later, McCain should have done exactly what he did.

McCain's real motto should be "He's Not Obama! And Palin Might Turn Out To Be Great!"