Sunday, October 19, 2008

Prediction 6

Follow-on post here.

Obama's still gaining:

The RNC has pulled out of Wisconsin and Maine, conceding both states. And Obama's hugely outspending McCain, including in the Washington DC television market, apparently not contesting the heavily Democratic Northern Virginia vote, perhaps one reason why Obama remains ahead. The Democrat is trying something similar in West Virginia. New Hampshire and New Mexico are lost. Obama's out-spending and out-hustling McCain in Florida. The Dems have even pulled ahead in normally-Republican Missouri. Ohio's still close--and it appears that possibly fake voter registrations will not be reviewed by courts.

A Republican victory depended on McCain holding "battleground" states Bush won in both 2004 and 2000, especially Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia and Florida. McCain currently is behind in all six, and could also lose North Carolina and Indiana:

source: Real Clear Politics
If the election were today, Obama wins by 79 electoral votes.

Follow-on post here.


OBloodyHell said...

Carl, I dunno. You're taking these polls seriously, and something about them stinks like 14-day fish on ice.

In addition to the (IIRC) previously noted posting at Strata's page (Latest:About Those Polls & Turnout Models) and Drummond's Stolen Thunder(Latest:A Few Thoughts About the State Polls), Zombietime has an interesting piece up, too:
The Left's Big Blunder.

I dunno, maybe it's all wishful thinking. But something FEELS wrong if Obama is actually winning so obviously.

Here in Florida, in the only county north of Orlando to go for Gore and Kerry, I'm seeing at least as many McCain/Palin signs as Obama signs. And almost no Obama bumper stickers (there were a LOT of Gore and Kerry ones).

Yes, that is an impression, not any effort towards a statistical variance or anything, but I suspect that, between them, the analysis of Strata, Drummond, and Zombie are more accurate than yours.

And, although you do very much have the ability to write as you want, I do wish you'd at least link to the dissenters in them so others are aware that there are those who disagree thoroughly with your "We're all doomed" take on the prospects for this election. Your take, accurate or inaccurate, is discouraging and likely to suppress GOP turnout, which is exactly the opposite of what is needed IF your opposition is correct. The net result is, there is very much a downside to putting forth your position, but little to none with putting forth the opposition's. So I'd argue that you ought to hope you are wrong and encourage others to realize you may be, so that they are sure to realize that they should get out and vote.

Strata also notes this one:
More Bad Polls For Obama
First, a highly Dem slanted AP/Yahoo poll shows a tie race. The AP/Yahoo poll shows the race to be 44-42% in favor of Obama, well within the margin of error of 2.5%. What has got to have the dems shaking in their boots is the sample break down, which is 40% democrats, 27% republican and 21% independent. A 13% spread is a joke, which means Obama could be as much as 4-8% behind (just a ROM estimate in my part). Anyone buying that is just deluding themselves.

Also, the WSJ has a good article about these nature of today’s polls and some words of warning on turnout models. Some key snippets:

Surveys giving Sen. Obama a large and growing lead tend to assume that a growing proportion of voters are Democrats, and a shrinking percentage Republicans. They also point to a big increase in turnout, particularly among voters under the age of 30. Surveys showing a closer race assume less change in party affiliation in particular.

Again -- your blog, but I do wish you'd consider calling attention to the other viewpoint even if you disagree thoroughly, because I hope you want to be wrong.


OBloodyHell said...

BTW, read the comments sections on the Strata posts, too. There are some interesting points being made, there, as well.

Something smells rotten in Denmark. "And it ain't the Limburger cheese".

Stan said...

I can't help but feeling skeptical of these polls, but then again, don't want to be like those Kerry supporters felt when in their view, the unbelievable happened.

OBloodyHell said...

> I don't want to be like those Kerry supporters felt when in their view, the unbelievable happened.

I'm not suggesting that by any means. I just don't want people discouraged enough that, if they realize, halfway home, that they forgot to vote (and having passed the place to turn to get to the polls) they say "screw it, we're going to lose anyway", and then find out that, as DJ notes at Stolen Thunder, that it's a very very close race and the one with the better turnout wins.

Remember -- about 1000 votes separated us from having Gore in charge on 9/11.

Carl said...

Actually, 537 votes from Florida.

Anonymous said...

Will any NEW INFORMATION about Obama or McCain surface PRIOR to the election?