Sunday, September 28, 2008

Prediction III

Electoral count the same as last week, but--despite scoring the first debate as no worse for McCain than a tie--the polls still trend toward the Dems:

source: RCP

Changes since last week: Obama hasn't wrapped up Pennsylvania, but seems safe in Washington, Iowa and New Mexico (and can quit ad buys in Washington and Iowa). Don't believe polls putting Michigan in play--Obama wins it going away.

McCain maintains a slim lead in Ohio and can probably count on Missouri. McCain must focus on Ohio (he cannot win without Ohio), Colorado (now behind), Virginia (ahead) and--possibly--North Carolina (in flux). It's too early for Republicans to abandon Pennsylvania (where Obama is playing hardball) or Minnesota (I doubt we win either, but important to rebut the pro-Dem media), and McCain must keep spending in Nevada (ahead), New Hampshire (slowly turning blue) and Florida (where I'm more optimistic than current numbers). No need for Rs to spend elsewhere in the South.

Bottom line: Obama by 3 electoral votes, with the financial crisis likely to favor the Dems.

Counter point: University of Oklahoma prof David Deming explains why Obama will lose, in the Edmond Sun (O.K.):
Nothing exemplifies Obama’s antipathy for American culture better than his statement that Americans “cling to” religion and guns out of frustration or bitterness. We only can suppose that Obama regards religion or firearms as aberrations that need to be eradicated.

Of course, both guns and religion are essential aspects of American culture. The United States was founded by people seeking religious freedom. Does the word “Pilgrim” ring a bell with anyone? Our freedom and the right to self-government were won by farmers with guns. . .

Obama is a vapid demagogue, a hollow man that despises American culture. He is ill-suited to be president of the United States. As the weeks pass, more Americans will come to this realization and elect McCain/Palin in a landslide.
(via Confederate Yankee)


OBloodyHell said...

Bottom line: Obama by 3 electoral votes, with the financial crisis likely to favor the Dems.

I agree with the latter, though I hope you to be wrong about the former...

Assistant Village Idiot said...

The national polls - even Rasmussen - are moving toward Obama, and state polls usually follow a few days after.

This gentlemanly-but-firm campaigning by McCain is not working well. I don't think it would just energise the base if he called out Obama on his lies and evasions, I think it would alert independents as well.

Of course, people who do elections for a living may have good numbers to show that independents act quite differently.

Anonymous said...

I would vastly prefer to see a McCain-Biden ticket take over the White House.

Let's be flexible.

It's also worth considering moves to make possible the election of Hillary and Bill to serve as co-Presidents.

OPEN, OPEN your beautiful brain.