The polls show Obama gaining in expected Democratic states like NJ, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Washington and Oregon. I also see Republicans in command in Missouri, North Dakota and Montana. But it's still a Democrat year. And the most troubling battleground is Colorado, where most polls and electronic markets have Obama leading. This is bad for McCain, as Stuart Rothenberg explains on RealClearPolitics:
I've become convinced that my initial list of five states probably can be boiled down to just one -- one state that is most likely to determine who will be the next occupant of the White House. And that state is Colorado.I agree, which is why I now see the Democrats winning by 3 electoral votes:
If John McCain carries Colorado in November, I'd expect him to hold onto all of George W. Bush's 2000 states, with the exception of New Hampshire. If he does that, and if Obama holds all of Al Gore's states, plus New Hampshire, McCain would win 274 electoral votes to 264 for Obama.
If Obama carries the state, he has altered the arithmetic of the Electoral College so as to make it difficult for McCain to win.
Six weeks left.