Sunday, September 21, 2008

Prediction II

I posted my first election prediction last week--McCain by 4 electoral votes. Much has changed since then, especially the financial market meltdown. And the Sarah Palin halo isn't quite as vivid.

The polls show Obama gaining in expected Democratic states like NJ, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Washington and Oregon. I also see Republicans in command in Missouri, North Dakota and Montana. But it's still a Democrat year. And the most troubling battleground is Colorado, where most polls and electronic markets have Obama leading. This is bad for McCain, as Stuart Rothenberg explains on RealClearPolitics:
I've become convinced that my initial list of five states probably can be boiled down to just one -- one state that is most likely to determine who will be the next occupant of the White House. And that state is Colorado.

If John McCain carries Colorado in November, I'd expect him to hold onto all of George W. Bush's 2000 states, with the exception of New Hampshire. If he does that, and if Obama holds all of Al Gore's states, plus New Hampshire, McCain would win 274 electoral votes to 264 for Obama.

If Obama carries the state, he has altered the arithmetic of the Electoral College so as to make it difficult for McCain to win.
I agree, which is why I now see the Democrats winning by 3 electoral votes:

source: RCP

Six weeks left.


OBloodyHell said...

Futility Muscles.

As you say, "Six Weeks Left".

Just look at the changes at Four Weeks Ago, and Two Weeks Ago.

Handicapping it at this point serves little purpose, as too many events which can alter it radically are still in the future.


Assistant Village Idiot said...

I have some agreement with the Colorado-is-key argument, but note a few places where changes could be important. NH, in particular, might still go red. It has become a blue state because of all those Ma$$holes moving up, but McCain is popular here.

I tend to put more stock in Rasmussen's polls than the others.

Carl said...

If my brother in Derry is any indication, NH is going blue.

Anonymous said...

Perhaps the Republicans will fix the coming election to make sure the Democrats win this time, since the Republicans do not have a clue as to how to get our great nation out of the multitude of catastrophes they have created. That way they can look relatively good in the next election.