Polls and Trends

Reader Barbara P. questions my recent polling analysis. Which raises the issue: Are current pre-election polls meaningful?

Poll results have been volatile since late spring (showing 6 lead changes). At present, virtually all surveys have Bush ahead, but with wildly different margins. According to Real Clear Politics, this weekend's numbers are:

• ABC/Wash Post: Bush 50%; Kerry 46% (Oct. 16 survey date)



• CNN/USA Today/Gallup: Bush 52 %; Kerry 44% (Oct 16).



• Zogby/Reuters: Bush 46%; Kerry 44% (Oct. 16)



• TIPP: Bush 48%; Kerry 45% (Oct. 16)



• Rasmussen: Bush 48%; Kerry 46% (Oct. 17)

The poll agree Bush is ahead. But obviously, there's quite a difference between Zogby's two point margin and Gallup's 8 point lead. Power Line's skeptical about Gallup; Instapundit and Jim Geraghty don't trust any poll. But for what it's worth, gamblers on the Iowa Electronic Market are closer to Gallup, betting Bush 59% to 41%.

Steven Den Beste also doesn't buy poll data; he speculates pollsters are fudging for Kerry:

In my opinion, the polls were being deliberately gimmicked, in hopes of helping Kerry. In early August it looks as if there was an attempt to engineer a "post-convention bounce", but it failed and was abandoned after about two weeks. . . .

In September, I think there was a deliberate attempt to depress Kerry's numbers, so as to set up an "October comeback". Of course, the goal was to engineer a bandwagon. Public opinion isn't usually as ephemeral as these polls suggest that it is.

I'm skeptical about the polls as well, but doubt Den Beste's hypothesis--purely because of "Occam's Razor." But Den Beste's also draws a trend-line, based on the Real Clear Politics long-term average of polls, that's quite encouraging, and far more believable:


Steven Den Beste's Poll Trendline

This analysis suggests Bush is not just ahead but building a big margin. I hope so. But remember that Karl Rove predicted a landslide last time and had to settle for a squeaker. Rove blamed the 2000 results on low turn-out from the Republican base, and vowed improvement this year. So while it's now clear Bush is beating Kerry (as opposed to tied), I'll stick with my prediction: In the battleground states (especially Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico), "who has more buses--churches or unions?"

More:

NRO's Jim Greaghty reiterates his poll doubts. And Kerry Haters notes the CNN story about its poll (8 point Bush lead among likely voters) is headlined "Presidential race still tight."