Polls, Predictions--and Desperation at AP

November 2^nd (note superscript) could be a rout. Gallup gives Bush a 13-point lead (55%-42%) over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters. Even the CBS/New York Times poll gives Bush a 9 point lead. A poll by Pew--biased toward Kerry throughout the campaign, according to liberal Mike Higton--says it's much closer, 47-46 Bush among likely voters. But not even lefties at Pew could skew the overall numbers: RealClearPolitics lists most polls, and calculates an average Bush lead of 5.5 points. Finally, the latest Iowa Electronic Market numbers favor Bush by a 3:2 margin:

The numbers reflect the President's clarity, Kerry's weakness, and Dan Rather's arrogance. All looking good, especially given this photo, which could be Dukakis in a tank.

Still, the non-partisan, unbiased Associated Press demurs. Today, they buried Bush's favorable poll numbers in the 20th graph of an anti-Bush story. And yesterday, AP conceded support for the President was up, but not among swing voters:

[Bush] has been gaining ground among overall voters as a leader and the man to fight terrorism, but swing voters have been less impressed, a tracking poll suggests.

AP explains this seeming paradox:

For swing voters, Bush's job approval has declined from the 50s in mid-August to the mid-40s. That may be caused at least partially by Bush solidifying his support and removing some backers from the swing voters group.

In other words, when Bush converts "swing voters," AP focuses on the now smaller swing category to conclude support for the President is declining.

The liberal media--a crazy cocktail of bias and bogus math in search of leftist silver linings in a conservative storm surge. (via Best of the Web)