Unicorns Still Don't Exist

In January, I detailed unrealistic mandates for "cellulosic biofuel" imposed by statute. Because Congressmen are lousy scientists, it turned out that "establishment costs, as well as collection, storage, and transportation costs, associated with the production of bulky biomass crops are likely to be more challenging than originally thought." Congressional Research Service, Cellulosic Biofuels: Analysis of Policy Issues for Congress at 3 (Jan. 13, 2011). Moreover, "[b]reaking down cellulose and converting it into fuel requires complex chemical processing--technology that is now rudimentary and expensive. . . [A]t the present time processing cellulose into fuels is expensive relative to other conventional and alternative fuel options." Id. at 9. (This despite a $350k grant awarded by EPA in 1997 to commercalize a "breakthrough" genetically engineered yeast that would convert cellulose to ethanol. The EPA gave a 2008 "Youth Award" to a New York state high school student for a seemingly similar project--at least it was cheaper!)

Unsurprisingly, therefore, refiners produced exactly zero gallons of cellulosic biofuel in 2011. 77 Fed. Reg. 1320, 1323 (Jan. 9, 2012). More surprisingly -- at least to those familiar with the meaning of due process -- oil companies were required to pay millions of dollars in "waivers" for failing to meet the mandates. Even the New York Times called this a euphemism for a "fine" and "penalty."

Back in 2008, the EPA predicted (link in .ppt) that "Cellulosic biomass will be the primary source for fuel ethanol." The agency still believes its press releases. Yet, according to MIT's Technology Review, "[t]he corn ethanol industry is booming, but cellulosic biofuel production is far behind schedule."


source: May 9th Technology Review

The article continues:

In 2012, the EPA posits--based on its analysis of the six facilities scheduled to come online this year--that the fledgling industry will have the capacity to produce nearly 10.5 million gallons, compared to the original goal of 500 million. . .

Several more facilities should begin commercial production in 2013, but it's hard to believe that the industry will come even close to producing a billion gallons--the goal for that year, set by Congress in 2007. And the 2022 mandate of 36 billion total gallons of biofuel--16 of that cellulosic--is looking more unrealistic every year.

Not that the oil companies won't pay fines. . . I mean buy waivers. Someone has to pay for misplaced green zealotry, and it's never Congress or the EPA--it's oil companies and, thus, their customers. Which (for those now occupying some public park) means us.

Plus, we're funding Congress and EPA. Meaning taxpayers pay double.

(via Instapundit)