Some of society's most intractable problems come not from its failures but from its successes. Often you can't get a good thing without paying a bad price.
A prime example is our public old-age pension system Social Security. It has been completely successful in wiping out poverty among the elderly. Old ladies no longer have to eat cat food to survive.
But we pay some prices for this. One is a lower savings rate. China has a humongous savings rate in part because it has no reliable old-age pension system. People have to save if they don't want to starve.
In the United States we got out of the habit of saving. In the decade up to the financial crash of 2008, the U.S. savings rate fell below zero.
We felt comfortable borrowing on the supposedly ever-increasing values of our houses to support current and sometimes lavish consumption. Now we're paying the price.
But even if our savings rate rises back to the level of, say, the 1980s, it still may be lower than optimal.
The longer-term price any society pays for a public old-age pension system is lower birthrates. Farmers had large families in order to provide additional labor for their working years and sources of income for their dotage. So did factory workers a century ago.
In Western Europe birthrates have fallen below the rate necessary to replace population -- in some countries, far below. The American birthrate has remained, barely, above replacement rate largely because of immigration. But immigration has slumped during the recession and may never return to the 1990-2008 level.
Unfortunately, under Social Security like most public pension systems, current pensions are paid for by current workers. As life spans increase and birthrates fall, the ratio of pensioners to active workers falls toward one-to-one.
That's not enough to support the elderly in anything like the style to which they have been accustomed, unless tax rates are sharply increased. And sharply higher tax rates, as Western Europe has shown over the last three decades, reduce long-term economic growth.
That's the problem, often abbreviated as "entitlements," facing our political system.
Thursday, September 01, 2011
Michael Barone in the Washington Examiner: