My views on Judge Vinson's opinion holding most of Obamacare unconsitutitonal are much the same as the Volokh Conspiracy's Ilya Somin. And there's no better breakdown than MaxedOutMama's wonderfully snide review. To watch the Judge going over-the-top from law to politics, see Slip Op. at 76 n.30 (Obama was against the mandate before he was for it).
Even so, the Vinson decision is far better than Judge Hudson's ruling from December. I still think the individual mandate will be upheld. Yet, Judge Vinson's ruling confirms that the winning side will be the one which can best define some limits to its governing principles: if this is interstate commerce, what isn't? Or, in the opposite sense, if the Commerce Clause authorizes prohibition of pot, isn't economic regulation of insurance (even if accomplished through a mandate to participate in commerce) a "lesser included offense"? And, unlike Judge Hudson, the Florida opinion strikes down most of Obamacare because the mandate's not severable--an idea Judge Vinson says he got from the Administration.
The only certainty is that the issue will be resolved by Justice Kennedy. Unless, unless, the democratic process manages to speak first.