Saturday, January 29, 2011

Chart of the Day

From the Congressional Budget Office's Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2011 Through 2021, Figure 3-1:

source: CBO, January 26, 2011, at 57

The CBO explains (at 56):
Compared with outlays over the past 40 years, the biggest difference in federal spending relative to GDP in the coming decade will be the amount of mandatory spending. In CBO’s baseline projections, mandatory spending averages 13.2 percent of GDP over the coming 10 years, in contrast to the 9.9 percent of GDP it averaged from 1971 to 2010 (see Figure 3-1). That higher level of spending is mostly a result of outlays for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other health programs, which are projected to grow from 10.3 percent of GDP in 2012 to 12.7 percent in 2021.
Social Security spending's turned to deficit, and Medicare's "a true fiscal nightmare." More evidence that the problem is entitlements, not, say, defense. And, the CBO "understate[s] the gravity of our situation."

(via Instapundit, MaxedOutMama)

1 comment:

MaxedOutMama said...

For what it's worth, according to the BEA's Q4 2010 GDP release, as of December 31st debt held by the public was 9.39 trillion/GDP 14.87 trillion, for a debt held by the public ratio of 63%.

And we'll rack up at least 2.8 trillion more over the next TWO years.

So let's assume that GDP increases by 10% over the two years (which is not even remotely possible). At the beginning of 2013 debt held by the public will be at least 12.2 trillion, and GDP will be less than 16.3 trillion, for public debt/GDP ratio over 75%.

People are sleepwalking into disaster.