Arctic ice is larger (in both area and extent) as compared with last year and with the 1979-2006 average. That didn't stop two National Science Foundation grantees from predicting that ice extent in September will be less than last year.
I couldn't venture my own prediction. But, as Steven Goddard shows, their forecast presumes a "far-fetched" volume of summer melting, and follows the same researchers' underestimated arctic ice minimums last year. It reminds me of the U.K.'s Met Office "seasonal" forecasts, which falsely predicted rising temps so often that they were scrapped.
Question: at what point does adherence to computer models trump reality? You can bet on the answer here.
(via Watts Up With That?)