Iraq War Spending Isn't the Issue

Many lefties claim that Iraq war spending caused current budget deficits -- and that the money should have gone to social programs. I've repeatedly tried to show that this is nonsense (many such claims consider only discretionary spending, a crazy comparison). Today, I try again.

Facts:

1. Iraq: Total costs of war since FY2001 -- About $709 billion, in nominal dollars, according to the leftist National Priorities Project. (Other figures here.)



2. Deficit: Total Federal budget shortfall since FY2001 -- About $4,974 trillion, in nominal dollars, according to the Office of Management and Budget (Table 1-1).



3. Social Security: Total Federal spending on SS since FY2001 -- About $5,493 trillion, in nominal dollars, according to OMB (Table 8-5).



4. Income security: Total Federal spending on unemployment, housing aid, welfare, food stamps, etc., since FY2001 -- About $3,410 trillion, in nominal dollars, according to OMB (Table 8-5).



5. Medicare: Total Federal spending on Medicare since FY2001 -- About $3,204 trillion, in nominal dollars, according to OMB (Table 8-5).



6. Medicaid: Total Federal spending on Medicaid since FY2001 -- About $1.895 trillion, in nominal dollars, according to OMB (Table 8-5).



7. Big four entitlements: Total Federal spending on the four largest mandatory entitlements, since FY2001 -- About $14,002 trillion, in nominal dollars, according to OMB (Table 8-5).

Math:

• Iraq as % of deficit: Ratio of total Iraq war costs to the total Federal deficit over the same period (#1/#2) -- 14%.



• Iraq as % of SS: Ratio of total Iraq war costs to total Social Security spending over same period (#1/#3) -- 13%.



• Iraq as % of top 4 entitlements: Ratio of total Iraq war costs to total spending for the largest for four entitlements over same period (#1/#7) -- 5%.

Chart: I've graphed the most relevant comparison of cumulative costs (as well as the cumulative deficits) from Federal FY2001 through FY2010:


source: NOfP chart via OMB and National Priority Project data

Even considering the Defense in total, that's less than 25% of all government entitlement spending:


source: GovernmentSpending.com

Conclusion: The Federal budget imbalance stems from ever-rising entitlements, not the Iraq war. Exiting Iraq wouldn't eliminate the deficit, as even the New York Times admits. Instead of pushing pacifism, progressives should prune social spending, especially Medicare.