Saturday, July 25, 2009

Sea Stories

The claim: According to stefan at the climate-alarmist website RealClimate on June 21st:
Some aspects of climate change are progressing faster than was expected a few years ago -- such as rising sea levels, the increase of heat stored in the ocean and the shrinking Arctic sea ice. "The updated estimates of the future global mean sea level rise are about double the IPCC projections from 2007″, says the new report.
The rebuttal: By Roger Pielke Sr. at Climate Science on June 30th:
[T]he author of the weblog makes the statement that the following climate metrics "are progressing faster than was expected a few years ago";

1. "rising sea levels"

NOT TRUE; e.g. see the University of Colorado at Boulder Sea Level Change analysis.

Sea level has actually flattened since 2006.

2. "the increase of heat stored in the ocean"


Update On A Comparison Of Upper Ocean Heat Content Changes With The GISS Model Predictions.

Their has been no statistically significant warming of the upper ocean since 2003.

3. "shrinking Arctic sea ice"

NOT TRUE; see the Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Anomaly from the University of Illinois Cyrosphere Today website. Since 2008, the anomalies have actually decreased.
The graphs: First, using the most recent University of Colorado satellite altimeter measurements, Bob Tisdale plotted monthly ocean levels by region since December 1992 at Climate Observations on July 22nd:

source: Climate Observations

Second, with the same dataset, Anthony Watts plotted the global numbers at Watts Up With That? on July 18th, using "no smoothing or trend lines":

source: Watts Up With That?

Watts concludes:
The newest one also looks "flat" to me since 2006, maybe even a slight downtrend since 2006. Let the wailing and gnashing begin anew.
Previous NOfP sea story wailing and gnashing here, here, here, here and here.

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