OK, I Admit It: America's Not # 1

Researchers at the University of California report that:

China has already overtaken the US as the world's "biggest polluter", a report to be published next month says.

The research suggests the country's greenhouse gas emissions have been underestimated, and probably passed those of the US in 2006-2007.

The University of California team will report their work in the Journal of Environment Economics and Management.

They warn that unchecked future growth will dwarf any emissions cuts made by rich nations under the Kyoto Protocol.

In particular, Forecasting the path of China’s CO2 emissions using province-level information concludes:

The EIA [the U.S. Energy Information Administration] predicts that all emission reductions by the year 2010 from current Annex I countries that have ratified the Kyoto protocol, relative to the predicted level in the absence of the agreement, amount to 115.90 million metric tons of carbon [49]. Even our most conservative forecasts predict an increase of over 600 million metric tons of carbon over year 2000 emissions by 2010 by the PRC alone. The best model forecasts cited here predict gains more than twice that number.

BTW, according to EIA, since 2004, developing world nations have emitted more CO₂ than OECD nations. All I can say is: I told you.

(via Instapundit)