(via reader JMS)
More:
From Wednesday's WSJ:
Dominique de Villepin's appointment as prime minister yesterday confirms the impression that France faces an extended interregnum. From here on in, the political game will be about the succession to the 72-year-old king, also known as the French president, who nominally holds on to power at the Elysée. In this environment, one can forget about the economic and political changes that France needs to tackle its chronic problems. . .
Still, it is hard to imagine a less inspired choice than Mr. De Villepin. Whatever its other merits or demerits, the referendum marked an upswell of popular democracy, a ringing call that the people want change. In response, Mr. Chirac tapped an aristocrat, a longtime civil servant trained at the fanciest schools who has never held elected office -- and is proud of it. This self-styled poet, historian, Chirac aide de camp, anti-Iraq War crusader hardly looks the man who can speak to "les Français d'en bas," the regular people, who are fed up with insular elites. His promotion from the Interior Ministry was treated by the victorious majority as a slap in the face, and rightly so.
The appointment also sends a distressing signal about the prospects for economic reform. Stagnant growth (under 1% last quarter) and stubbornly high unemployment (at 10.2%) fed the discontent that voters expressed Sunday. The medicine may not be popular, but a courageous leader would take this opportunity to tackle these problems head-on.
Mr. De Villepin doesn't look like the man to even try. His views are fuzzily anti-free-market. Assuming a parliamentary OK for his cabinet -- an if at this point -- he'll lack a popular mandate or the political strength to challenge the vested interests that stand in the way. Smelling blood, trade unions are stepping up their demands for handouts. The planned privatizations of the electricity and gas utilities are in jeopardy. Smelling trouble, the markets sent French stocks and the euro down yesterday.
4 comments:
Will Villipin's appointment change anything, and if so, how?
Irina,
The most visible difference is style. (I met de Villepin only once, briefly, at the French Embassy in Washington.) Raffarin had humble origins and wasn't an énarque; de Villepin is an énarque and acts as aristocrat and intellectual; both traits are admired by the French electorate. Raffarin was mildly pro-market; de Villepin anything but.
Moreover, de Villepin has that 'lean and hungry look.' He will both try to atone for his disastrous 1997 recommendation for a snap election and (with Chirac's help) try to out-do his probable political rival, Nicolas Sarkozy.
I expect the battle with Sarkozy for French public opinion will push de Villepin toward populism and away from honestly telling the electorate France must choose between its comfortable way of life and world-power status. Globalization made being both impossible--de Villepin is unlikely to say so before the Presidential election in 2007.
Thanks...
I'm not sure how de Villepin is going to be in his attempts in out-doing Sarcozy. From what I hear, the latter is gaining in popularity. What do you think are the chances of him coming to power in the next election?
irina:
Quite good, I think, but far too early to tell. Among other things, I haven't identified a strong candidate on the left. The 2007 vote is shaping up as the anti-Chirac election. The victor is whoever least resembles Chirac. That makes de Villepin's next two years very tricky.
Post a Comment