Wins (including expected wins): Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Taiwan (also here and here), Bahrain, Kyrgyzstan (also here), Ireland (also here and here), Ukraine. Plus, more babe vote evidence.
Ties (or too soon to tell): Turkey, Iran (also here), Canada, China, others in Central Asia, Moldolva, Egypt (also here), Palestine, Saudi Arabia.
Loses (includes expected loses): Belarus (also here and here), Berkeley California, Venezuela, Cuba, Syria, European Union (also here).
(via Publius Pundit, Instapundit and Chrenkoff)
More:
Syria might be upgraded to a tie.
(via Templar Pundit)
5 comments:
I predict victory in Belarus by the Presidential Election in '06. Lukashenko is just beginning to shake in his boots.
Perhaps, but would Russia allow that? I know they declined to re-absorb Belarus a few years ago (primarily because of the latter's enormous debt), but a free and democratic Belarus could potentially put the EU right on Russia's Western border.
A lot will depend on what transpires between now and Belarussian Presidential Elections in '06. The Russians will probably try to seek some kind of compromise candidate. They will be in a catch-22. Russia doesn't trust Lukashenko, but the opposition will likely be pro-EU and US. In the interrum, it is likely that Kazakhstan (and possibly other Central Asian States) will have fallen to velvet revolutions. Even in Russia, Putin's popularity has slipped to just 42% (which likely means it is even lower) The majority of Russians simply want a normal country, free of "imperial" encumbrances. It isn't that they will allow it, it is just likely that they will not be in a position to stop it. Lukashenko may use force, but we know what they say about those who live by the sword ... Putin is pragmatic enough to adapt to the new realities. The possibility of his own regime collapsing is real.
OEC
Inspired stuff. You might have to move Ireland to a 'tie' in May after the Westminster elections. At the moment it looks like a Sinn Fein/IRA sweep at the polls. Used to be 'vote for us - or the Brits/Loyalists'll kill you' to 'vote for us - and we'll kill you anyway and smear your family'.
Rather unbelievably, the polls look like the voters are going with that line. But we wait in hope.
One Eyed Cat: Interesting post over at Publius Pundit on Russia's reaction to the Orange, Tulip, etc., revolution.
And Richard, if true, that's depressing news indeed. How long before free people stop voting to punch themselves in the face?
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