Pre-Convention Predictions

The latest poll data gives President Bush a narrow lead. First, from Rightwingnews, national polls, which mostly give Bush a 1-2 point lead.

NBC/WSJ: Bush 47, Kerry 45, Nader 3
Gallup: Bush 48, Kerry 46, Nader 4
FOX News: Kerry 44, Bush 43, Nader 3
LA Times: Bush 47, Kerry 44, Nader 3
Rasmussen: Bush 47, Kerry 46 (released 8/26)

Next, state polls in key battleground states:

MO: Bush 46, Kerry 42, Nader 3
WI: Bush 45, Kerry 44, Nader 3
PA: Bush 45, Kerry 44, Nader 3
OH: Bush 46, Kerry 43, Nader 4

Finally, the reliabable Iowa Market Poll, showing price changes in Kerry and Bush futures since early June, has the President up by 6 nationwide.
Remember - the "convention bounce" (if any) is still to come.