Fred Barnes is Optimistic

His article in the August 9th Weekly Standard suggests the best of Bush is yet to come, for two reasons. First, and contrary to expectations, the Dems themselves put national security in play:

As luck would have it for Bush, Kerry and Edwards have also turned 9/11 into a major campaign issue. . . The Bush campaign always intended to draw a sharp contrast with Kerry on national security and the war on terror. But now that Kerry has elevated these issues, indeed staked his candidacy on them, it will not seem forced for Bush to concentrate on them.

So expect a pointed critique of Kerry's consistent record under-estimating America's foes and opposing defense and security improvements.

In talking up Kerry, Edwards and other Democrats left a 35-year gap in Kerry's biography: from his return from Vietnam to the present. These forgotten years include Kerry's two decades in the Senate when he was consistently dovish on national security--right up until this past March when he locked up the presidential nomination.

Second, Republicans haven't even begun to fight:

The Bush campaign has already produced ads contrasting Kerry's positions then--voting against weapons systems, supporting cuts in military and intelligence spending, opposing aid to freedom fighters, and attacking President Reagan's hard-line policy toward the Soviet Union--with what he says now, and with Bush's positions. . . One TV spot is expected to contrast Kerry's changing position on the $87 billion appropriation to fund the troops in Iraq. Kerry first suggested that voting against the $87 billion would be "irresponsible," and doing so would mean "abandoning the troops." Then he voted against the $87 billion. Another contrast ad skewers Kerry so effectively, a Bush aide says, "it's painful to watch." These ads are to be aired sparingly in August, then used with full force after Labor Day.

The RNC already released a video collection of Kerry source material. It's long, but devastating; I expect the various 30 second versions will both delight and persuade.

Perhaps hope--not the kind from Arkansas--is on the way.

More

The Iowa Electronic Market poll has Bush ahead by 5 points--a trend beginning before and continuing after the Democratic Convention. Great news, not easily discounted:

In the last four presidential elections, according to a paper by Justin Wolfers of the University of Pennsylvania and Eric Zitzewitz of Stanford University, the University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Market has averaged an error margin of ±1.5% in the week before the vote, compared with ±2.1% for the Gallup polls.

(via Instapundit)