Admission of the Day

For decades, Michael Mann pushed the "hockey stick" model of future global temperature increases. As recently as last year, he said the science was settled:

Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University in University Park and the study's lead author, says that the results suggest that the annual number of hurricanes will continue to increase as a result of global warming.

Previous research has shown that warm sea surface temperatures could encourage hurricanes to form. The historical peak in hurricane activity coincided with periods of high sea surface temperatures, says Mann.

"This tells us that the relationship between sea surface temperatures and cyclone activity seems to be robust and gives support to the debate that we are likely to see an increase in tropical cyclone activity in response to global warming," he says.

Climategate has changed his tone, albeit not his conclusions, according to an interview in the March 28th Allentown Morning Call:

Among the propositions that remain unsettled, according to Mann:

* That without a reduction in man-made CO2 emissions, large sections of coastal cities will be under water by the end of this century.
* That global warming is causing more frequent hurricanes.
* That 1998 was the warmest year of the 1,000 years from 1000 to 1999.
* That current warmth of the planet is reducing the polar bear population.

It's a start. As Dana Gattuso says on Planet Gore, "Who knows when he will reconsider the "hockey stick" mantra -- perhaps not long from now?"