Wednesday, May 25, 2005

Is Being Best in Europe Good Enough?

Blogger OJ at RightViews (a blog well worth reading) disputed parts of my previous post about Sweden. OJ favors cutting back Sweden's welfare state, and he's optimistic:
The unemployment numbers cited as stated by LO are not exactly accurate. As with any statistic, numbers can be twisted from selected segments to reflect your opinion. The dispute revolves around counting or not counting sickleave and long term disability into unemployment numbers since there seems to be a higher incidence of disability claims in areas with low employment. . .

The analysis in this post is a bit disingenuous.
OJ also predicts increased electoral support for Sweden's Moderates (center right). Finally, he suggests I turn my guns on socialist France--always good advice, and already employed many, many times. (I've even peeked into Sweden's past.)

OJ's view is encouraging. Still, I wonder: where's data to support the sunshine? In the spirit of debate, here's my info: Conclusion: I don't want Sweden -- or Europe -- to fail. And I'm pleased about prospects for a change in government. But the overall trend is clear: years of secular paternalism gave birth to excessive dependency, attracting immigrants wanting handouts without assimilating, multiplying civic pessimism, which allowed elites to drain European democracy. The result: Europe traded religious faith for slow suicide:
Europe "cannot summon the will to reproduce itself. It has aborted and contracepted its birthrate down toward demographic disaster: perhaps 1.4 children per couple across the western end of the continent, when simple replacement requires a rate around 2.1.
And, says Mark Steyn, it's unlikely to change:
The longer it gets, the harder it will be, because it's a race against time, against lengthening demographic, economic and geopolitical odds. By "demographic," I mean the Muslim world's high birth rate, which by mid-century will give tiny Yemen a higher population than vast empty Russia. By "economic," I mean the perfect storm the Europeans will face within this decade, because their lavish welfare states are unsustainable on their shriveled post-Christian birth rates.
Not even a conservative government can cure that.

More:

Tyler Cowen and Roaring Tiger are debating whether Americans work more than Europeans.

(via NIF)

Still More:

No comprehensive reply yet, but here's the source for "cooking the books on Swedish unemployment." Interestingly, it's not a labor union plot--they're accused of suppressing the data.

1 comment:

@nooil4pacifists said...

OJ replied by email, and graciously ok'd posting here (I embedded the hyperlinks). I'll respond soon. /NOfP


Thank you for an incouraging debate. First, most of my sources regarding Sweden are in Swedish, I am not sure they will be of any use to you. Let me know.

As for the GDP and GDP per capita analysis, there is something to be mentioned. Nothing bad said about Alabama but I can assure you that standard of living, public infrastructure, schools as well as other aspects in Sweden far exceed those of Alabama and many other American states. I do not agree with the extensive redistribution systems in Scandinavia. Yet analyzing GDP and GDP per capita alone to gain insight in the wealth of a nation misses the mark. Sweden has a population of roughly 9 million people. Outside of Europe, if you look at what similar sized nations have been able to accomplish with equivalent man-power and resources, you will come to find that the Scandinavian model has yielded extraordinary results.

Sweden is technologically very advanced. It should come as no surprise that most large technology firms open research divisions in Sweden to tap into the knowledge there - knowledge fostered by a reinvestment of NDP. Mind you, Sweden must be one of the smallest countries in the world with an indigenous jet fighter, quite capable of rivaling its American, Russian and French counterparts.

When looking at GDP, it is important to examine how the NDP has been reinvested into public infrastructure such as schools and universities and gague the value that these investments have yielded. There is no question that he top schools in the world are in the US. Yet the bredth of the American educational spectrum, especially in k-12, could use a little widening. Something President Bush should be applauded for attempting to achieve.

I am the first to support backing statements with sources. Yet statistics are dangerous because numbers can be easily used to align with opinion. Looking at a slize of data rarely determines the big picture, and depending on which slize you look at, resulting conclusions may vary.

This being said, I think that the Swedish system in general is ripe for reform. The right wing coalition will bring just such reform to the table. Here is the latest opinion poll (mind you - done by a very left-leaning paper).

On the immediate right hand side of the article there are two red squares. The first one says - Läs Mer - click on the link that says 'se grafik' and enlarge the window. April polls conducted showed Socialist Democrats below the Moderates. I can not find these polls right now but as you can see - the separation is well within the margin of error. In a parliamentary system, it is not winner takes all but coalitions that run the parliament.

Anyway, thank you for taking interest in these matters. I like your blog and I will definitely link to it.