Election Snapshot

The LA Times has an interactive map linked to the latest poling data--it's the best website for election prediction. With less than seven weeks remaining, here's my current, worst-case, tally (270 needed to win):

• Bush--274 votes: Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Nevada, Alaska.



• Kerry--264 votes: Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa, New Mexico, Washington, Oregon, California, Hawaii.

This is a conservative estimate, since Bush is ahead or tied in Maine, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, and Oregon (and I question West Virginia). States the President must hold: Florida (leaning Bush), Tennessee (majority Bush), New Mexico (leaning Kerry) and Arkansas (mostly Bush).