Final Numbers

[previous post in series here]

Remember, I'm deep into the ground game; I admit that I've lost track of national trends. The polls are inconsistent and opposite--nearly worthless. And I've not fully absorbed the various electronic betting markets (Iowa Electronic Market pool--Bush 55%) or the recent reviews thereof (see here (Bush 286 electoral votes), here (Bush 51.5%) and here (Bush 57.7%)).

But, to hell with it--my bold predictions:

• Florida--Bush wins my state (well, my adopted state) with 53 percent.



• Ohio--Bush wins with 51 percent. Yes, I said Bush, despite the latest outrage from two un-elected liberal judges who ruled that the United States Constitution prohibits allowing party observers in polling places--"a unilateral victory for the Democrats," according to Megan McArdle guest-blogging on Instapundit.



• Other battleground states--Bush wins one vote in Maine, plus Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada. Kerry wins New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New Mexico and Hawaii.



• Final electoral vote tally--Bush 292, Kerry 246. Funny, that's unchanged from my last prediction.

Two points are clear beyond cavil:

1. Kerry = surrender to the terrorists, as Jonah Goldberg says: "If Kerry wins, the Moore-ons will claim it as an anti-war victory and they will be right in doing so."



2. Until today, I was pretty sure the Constitution didn't address poll watchers. So, Kerry = more unelected Federal judges reading non-existing clauses into the United States Constitution.

Tomorrow I'll be up at dawn, traveling between the dozen or so Lee County precincts with the heaviest expected Democrat vote. I'll update progress around 1pm.

More:

The soon-to-retire-and-be-replaced-by-a-real-Republican Justice Stevens denied the application for stay of the overturning of Ohio challenge law. That makes it quite difficult to monitor voter fraud. But, to Stevens, it was a no-brainer: "Because of the importance of providing the parties with a prompt decision, I am simply denying the applications to vacate stays without referring them to the full Court."

Got that? Count every vote, but bypass full judicial review.

[Series continues here]