Remember, I'm deep into the ground game; I admit that I've lost track of national trends. The polls are inconsistent and opposite--nearly worthless. And I've not fully absorbed the various electronic betting markets (Iowa Electronic Market pool--Bush 55%) or the recent reviews thereof (see here (Bush 286 electoral votes), here (Bush 51.5%) and here (Bush 57.7%)).
But, to hell with it--my bold predictions:
- Florida--Bush wins my state (well, my adopted state) with 53 percent.
- Ohio--Bush wins with 51 percent. Yes, I said Bush, despite the latest outrage from two un-elected liberal judges who ruled that the United States Constitution prohibits allowing party observers in polling places--"a unilateral victory for the Democrats," according to Megan McArdle guest-blogging on Instapundit.
- Other battleground states--Bush wins one vote in Maine, plus Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada. Kerry wins New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New Mexico and Hawaii.
- Final electoral vote tally--Bush 292, Kerry 246. Funny, that's unchanged from my last prediction.
- Kerry = surrender to the terrorists, as Jonah Goldberg says: "If Kerry wins, the Moore-ons will claim it as an anti-war victory and they will be right in doing so."
- Until today, I was pretty sure the Constitution didn't address poll watchers. So, Kerry = more unelected Federal judges reading non-existing clauses into the United States Constitution.
The soon-to-retire-and-be-replaced-by-a-real-Republican Justice Stevens denied the application for stay of the overturning of Ohio challenge law. That makes it quite difficult to monitor voter fraud. But, to Stevens, it was a no-brainer: "Because of the importance of providing the parties with a prompt decision, I am simply denying the applications to vacate stays without referring them to the full Court."
Got that? Count every vote, but bypass full judicial review.
[Series continues here]